Sales Forecasting for Retail Chains: A Guide
for Small C-Store Owners

    In the competitive world of convenience stores, selecting the right location is critical to long-term success. Unlike large chains, small c-store owners often lack the resources for predictive in-house analytics for sales forecasting or access to extensive operational data from multiple stores. However, with the right data and insights from Ticon, even small-scale operators can make optimal, data-driven decisions and ensure successful competition with industry giants.

    Insights from Industry Experts

    Andrew Tasker, former Head of Location Planning at Sainsbury’s, provides a useful perspective on the importance of balancing office-based analysis with on-site evaluations. According to Tasker:

    • Supermarket forecasting relies on 80% in-office analysis and 20% site visits.
    • Convenience store forecasting flips the ratio, with 80% site visits and 20% in-office study.

    While this approach has worked traditionally, the development of advanced technologies, AI, and Big Data has revolutionized retail site analysis. Today, site evaluations can be performed quickly and accurately using the long-term collected data, often eliminating the need for extensive site visits. 

    By leveraging cutting-edge forecasting software tools and reliable data, such as Ticon’s Sales Projection Reports, c-store owners can:

    • Save valuable time and resources.
    • Mitigate risks by making data-backed decisions.
    • Ensure long-term growth through precise forecasting.

    Our solutions empower small c-store owners to strategically position themselves for success in an increasingly competitive market.

    Download Sample Report

    A Simple Framework for Retail Location Analysis

    To find the best site, it’s crucial to investigate two primary factors: demand and supply.

    1. Assess Demand Levels

    Start by evaluating the potential customer base in the target area. At Ticon, we use a comprehensive, data-driven methodology to assess potential demand by leveraging:

    Accurate and ample traffic flow data cross-verified from multiple reliable sources;
    Machine learning (ML) technologies for predictive analysis;
    Visitor rates (i.e., interception rates) to identify the volume of potential customers;
    Highly granular demographic data both for trade area and passing traffic to estimate target audience.

    Potential customers per month based on AADT

    Our studies show that leveraging cross-verified and highly granular data for retail location selection can deliver up to a 28% higher ROI for new site investments. By combining cutting-edge techniques with verified data, we deliver reliable, bankable in-store and fuel sales forecasting that you can trust.

    Projected in-store sales and fuel demand by year

    Accurate sales forecasting for retail chains go beyond basic traffic flow data like AADT. A truly comprehensive analysis considers passing traffic patterns at multiple levels, including: intraday, weekly and seasonal fluctuations; and speed distribution. This holistic approach enables optimal location analysis for a retail store by identifying locations with the best potential for intercepting traffic and maximizing average check. Surprisingly, a site with higher AADT may not always be the best choice.

    Additionally, Ticon recently introduced traffic flow demographics to uncover real characteristics of drivers like:

    • Dominant age and sex groups;
    Income and education levels;
    Racial & ethnical distribution of potential customers.

    Demographics of traffic flow

    With these insights, you won’t just wonder who passes your site - you’ll know. From understanding who your customers are to predicting their needs, Ticon’s data equips you to offer the right products and services at the right time. This ensures you capitalize every opportunity to drive demand and growth, backed by a comprehensive and detailed store location analysis.

    2. Evaluate Supply Levels

    Analyze the competitive landscape to gauge potential threats and opportunities. Ticon reports deliver comprehensive insights on competitors in a primary trade area, including:

    • Proximity of competing and magnet stores nearby;
    • Service they provide;
    • Presence of “hypermarket threat”;
    • And other critical attributes.

    Equipped with this professional site analysis, small c-store owners can make informed decisions, uncover underserved market gaps, and develop strategies to gain a competitive edge.

    Competition level in area

    The Key to Staying Competitive

    In an environment where competition is intensifying, small c-store owners need to act decisively. Ticon’s tailored reports provide the insights you need to make confident decisions. From pinpointing high-demand areas to evaluating competition dynamics, we empower small c-store owners to position themselves for growth and outshine competitors.

    Start now by contacting us at info@ticon.co.